7 stages to the ‘new normal’

There is an expectation that the current global lockdown is temporary and that we will emerge on the other side stronger, better and, well, normal. Timothy O’Neil-Dunne, Principal at 777 Partners, brings to light the seven stages that the industry will go through before things become routine once again.

That is not the case. I hope that somehow, I will end up eating these words, but I don’t believe so. We will have to go through a cycle of pain.

Stage 1: December 2019 to January 2020

When first reports of the Wuhan virus emerged, there was a clear expectation that it would be contained just like SARS and H1N1. The mechanisms worked well then – it’s a Chinese problem they must deal with it. No cancellations or refunds permitted – it’s flu for heaven sake.

Stage 2: February to late-March 2020

When bookings start to fall off and the cancellations start flooding in, panic starts. Slash schedules and costs. Borders close, cases mount – death toll soars. Airlines start pulling in credit lines and setting up new ones. Appeals for massive immediate bailouts are appearing every day. Mass layoffs start. Airlines go full-speed to stop.

Stage 3: End of March 2020

Layoffs are universal. Airlines are too big to fail. The mission is now – get people home. Acting as an instrument of government, the airlines are now in the business of repatriation. Country borders get locked down tight.

Stage 4: April and May 2020

With the airlines in shutdown, what started as a creeping delay is moved to more permanent mothballing of the fleets. Aircraft orders come to a crashing halt. Airlines are permitted to fly only essential routes. Traffic will be approximately 10 to 20% of normal with many airlines not emerging from the shutdown.

Stage 5: June–September 2020

There will need to be a complete rethink of security and protocols for flying. Government and the traveling public will demand a ‘Safe Flight Protocol’. Universal testing of all workers and passengers will be mandatory, and introducing it will be problematic and costly. Vaccinations on a mass scale will start. Traffic will drop again in late-September.

Stage 6: October 2020 to
June 2021

Major projects for airports will be abandoned. Capacity will be freed up that was previously constrained. Governments will be required to ration out flights and/or encourage route swapping. Cooperation becomes the new normal. Interlining – inter-carrier connections become popular again. Legacy infrastructure will fall away.

Stage 7: July 2021 onwards

Within three years we will be only about 75% of capacity of 2019. This will depend on the success of the testing regimes and how effective the airport safe buffer zones are. Webinar growth will reduce convention/meetings travel. Certified safe hotels will become popular and home rentals without safe ratings will fall away. Airbnb will struggle. Staying with family will become popular as will shorter business trips.