Looking beyond COVID-19

Three stalwarts of aviation share their views on what they think theroad to recovery for the industry will be like during a Centre for Aviation- CAPA Masterclass series.

Peter Harbison, Chairman Emeritus, CAPA – Centre for Aviation

It is going to be a long road back. We are not going to see the industry that was last year, come back before perhaps five years. On the supply side, we are inevitably going to have fewer airlines. On the demand side, arriving at airports will be a challenge when you are side by side with a couple of thousand other people, all now waiting to be checked medically before you can get through. In the short term, border controls are going to restrict any short-stay travel or any discretionary travel.

Christoph Mueller, Ex-Airline Executive

Government aids come in different forms. We have seen a very successful model with LOT in the last couple of years. It is highly regulated in Europe and very highly scrutinised to ensure that it is not the wrong government support or state aid. If state aids can be used as a proxy to simulate Chapter 11-type of procedure over the next couple of months, in order to restructure the size and the network which is sustainable in the long run, I would have a positive sentiment about government engagement in carriers.

Hugh Aitken, VP Commercial, Skyscanner

We have not seen domestic market pick up in Europe, especially because there is sufficient surface access across Europe. What we are seeing is that individual European countries talk about opening up Schengen and starting to reduce restrictions in the bubble of Europe. That will be interesting to see if and when it starts to happen, and then we will see demand start to pick up quickly.

Inputs by Hazel Jain